Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 22.726251 24.731401 26.898566 29.426276 32.308015 35.508262 39.355094
2025-11-30 19.396781 22.101498 25.228837 29.156226 34.020427 39.934984 47.811468
2025-12-07 17.196789 20.292725 24.064828 29.093013 35.770775 44.568461 57.464552
2025-12-14 15.519830 18.821092 23.013792 28.882018 37.150560 48.844814 67.592053
2025-12-21 14.672002 18.248007 22.969695 29.896199 40.247867 56.004192 83.856429
2025-12-28 13.570502 17.196226 22.124843 29.619854 41.353527 60.319342 96.786415
2026-01-04 12.731337 16.403333 21.527038 29.580021 42.749240 65.312928 112.571234
2026-01-11 12.118529 15.859529 21.210428 29.892548 44.715898 71.669731 133.538905
2026-01-18 11.453732 15.179282 20.616334 29.673127 45.708531 76.412592 153.030172
2026-01-25 10.880174 14.584338 20.090187 29.487124 46.704494 81.363648 175.496841
2026-02-01 10.404471 14.097671 19.683804 29.443741 47.937937 87.095476 203.419417
2026-02-08 9.942851 13.599175 19.214706 29.232065 48.799220 92.212709 232.922941
2026-02-15 9.504325 13.118453 18.752703 29.012096 49.672832 97.777075 269.120182
2026-02-22 9.098860 12.665756 18.304562 28.773646 50.483744 103.491348 311.738548
2026-03-01 8.762644 12.301991 17.976617 28.722995 51.695369 110.693319 369.502180
2026-03-08 8.427937 11.920877 17.591160 28.520728 52.536438 117.181909 433.365470
2026-03-15 8.318914 11.896529 17.811872 29.518919 56.343540 134.088619 591.722041
2026-03-22 8.016266 11.536953 17.420835 29.248504 57.040243 141.366641 703.805977
2026-03-29 7.770867 11.259403 17.156275 29.209802 58.318095 151.274734 871.717445
2026-04-05 7.592311 11.084067 17.062456 29.516921 60.559059 165.910984 1159.168571
2026-04-12 7.352855 10.793519 16.739717 29.301508 61.359002 175.366991 1444.249870
2026-04-19 7.133216 10.526716 16.444738 29.118857 62.226882 185.690254 1838.514078
2026-04-26 6.945236 10.305921 16.222345 29.076262 63.499326 198.701843 2465.375912